Küresel Sermaye Akışlarının Bitcoin Üzerindeki Etkileri: ETF Çıkarımları ve Piyasa Algısı

Today, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have largely lost value; a $410 million outflow occurred on Thursday, and Bitcoin fell below $66,000. This situation is almost a blow to the bulls who have lost hope for a quick reversal. Not only have institutional flows been halted; they have begun to flow in the opposite direction. This indicates the second day of heavy red candles in ETFs over the past two days and total losses exceeding $686 million. BlackRock’s IBIT experienced the steepest decline with an outflow of $157.56 million; Fidelity’s FBTC followed with approximately $104 million outflow. Even established players maintaining their stance are diverging from market leaders during this process.

As a driving force, the better-than-expected employment data quickly dissuades investors from expecting Fed rate cuts and further increases liquidation risk. Perspectives in global markets are changing rapidly: some regions maintain cautious stances against crypto, while others are entering a global adoption process. However, such large-scale outflows clearly demonstrate that the rapid decrease in institutional money poses systemic risk.

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Is the Institutional Base Collapsing?

When we examine the charts, we see that Bitcoin is trading around $67,000 and is approximately 47% below its October 2025 peak of $126,080. The macro picture is increasingly negative; major banks are revising their targets downward. Standard Chartered envisions Bitcoin could fall to $50,000. JP Morgan, on the other hand, has revised its production cost estimate to $77,000; the decline in hash rate and mining difficulty influences this decision. Additionally, warning signs in derivative markets are increasing; data showing whales hedging short positions to protect themselves is noteworthy. The cautious behavior of whales may be an important indicator that could trigger risk appetite in the market.

The ongoing negative sentiment has gained strength with new risk analyses, and retail investors are questioning whether their assets are safe. The rising wave of concerns creates a feedback loop that could push prices further down. One of the most famous bulls, Michael Saylor, is also uncertain about Bitcoin’s direction; while publicly pointing to geopolitical uncertainties, he also feels that larger potential declines could be possible behind the scenes.

A social media trigger reference has also been added with Alejandro TC’s post, addressing Bitcoin and market sentiment.

What to Watch for the Next Steps?

For those seeking entry points, the psychological level of $60,000 is now an important threshold; breaking this level could make a target of around $50,000 for bears suddenly more realistic. Source: TradingView data is recommended for tracking large money flows using tools like SoSoValue. Positive entries are not yet seen; therefore, catching the falling trend could be risky. However, for bold contrarians, this decline might create an opportunity similar to the best crypto buys at the start of the week. The volatility is two-sided; closely monitor inflation data. If the data cools and flows change direction, money could go into liquidity. Currently, cash may still be king.

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