Küresel Kripto Piyasasında Denge Sarsıntısı: Washington ve Veriler Belirleyici

Wednesday’s global crypto markets saw a decline of approximately 4%, while Asian stock markets showed a partial increase. Optimism that the US is close to ending the recorded government shutdown created a cautious atmosphere in the markets. Bitcoin perpetual futures open positions significantly decreased; funding rates remained stable, and net inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs stayed at only around $1 million. Bitcoin traded below the 110,000-dollar 200-day moving average and encountered resistance just above this level; support was observed around 103,000 dollars. If selling pressure increases, analysts point to the next support zone between 86,000 and 82,000.

Current market view: Bitcoin: $103,305, -3.5%; Ether: $3,438, -5.2%; XRP: $2.40, -5.6%; Total crypto market value: $3.56 trillion, -3.5%.

Washington Attention: Data Shortage and Market Sentiment Towards the Close

Since October, Bitcoin volume has contracted by about $340 billion; despite a recovery in gold and tech stocks, it is notable that major players have reduced their positions. George Mandres, senior trading expert at XBTO Trading, states that large players decreasing positions has led to weak ETF returns and sales from corporate treasury sources. In traditional markets, MSCI’s Asia ex-Japan index slightly increased in the morning; the US House of Representatives is preparing to vote on a bill to reopen government funds. The bill aims to reduce post-Thanksgiving worries and end the longest government shutdown to date. Although data is limited, the AdP report showed the private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs over four weeks. The bill was approved by the Senate; government reopening is expected pending House approval.

While daily data do not completely halt weekly declines, they indicate easing concerns. The Dow Jones index rose 1.2% last night, while Nasdaq declined 0.3%; S&P 500 futures remained flat in Asian morning. Markets are currently focusing on closing data, and despite limited intra-day information, indicators suggest that the close will increase volatility in risk assets.

Other Developments

Softening in employment data is providing short-term relief to investors regarding monetary policy. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 68% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting; this was 62% the day before. The dollar index fell to 99.45, reaching the lowest level seen this month. Gold is up by about 3%, trading above $4,100; falling yields and increased risk appetite in stocks contributed to this trend.

ETF inflows and market confidence analysts say that demand for crypto will increase once on-chain accumulation or ETF flows strengthen. Bitcoin, however, generally cannot keep pace with risk assets and remained near $105,000, making it difficult to break through technical levels again. President Donald Trump added uncertainty to the market by stating that a court decision related to immigration policies and additional taxes could threaten economic stability and national security. Even if an agreement is reached in Washington, the decrease in volatility of risk assets might last longer in crypto markets.